16 septembre 2011

What the Tuareg Do After the Fall of Qaddafi Will Determine the Security Future of the Sahel

PhiGéo - Marc Imbeault

Andrew McGregor propose dans le Terrorism Monitor une analyse serrée du rôle des mercenaires touaregs dans la défense du "colonel" Kadhafi en Libye, de leurs chefs, notemment d'Ibrahim Ag Bahanga, mort récemment, et de son successeur Ana Ag Ateyoub.

Il en ressort que les touaregs pourraient continuer de jouer un rôle de premier plan dans l'avenir de la Libye. D'abord comme protecteur du "Guide" en fuite et, de plus, comme point d'appui de sa force contre-insurrectionnel. Voici quelques passages clés du texte de McGgregor :

"According to a TNC report based on a communication from the former Libyan intelligence director Musa Kusa, Qaddafi is now moving between al-Jufrah district in the center of the country, home to a strategically located military base and airstrip at Hun, and the remote Tagharin oasis near the Algerian border, where he is guarded by Tuareg tribesmen (al-Sharq al-Awsat, September 5). [...] It is possible that Qaddafi may threaten the new government from the vast spaces of southern Libya if he can gain the cooperation of the Tuareg. Despite signs of disenchantment with Qaddafi among the Tuareg tribesmen, there is still the lure presented by the vast sums of cash and gold loyalist forces appear to have moved south on behalf of Qaddafi, who has always understood the need to keep a few billion in cash under the mattress, just in case. [...] Tuareg rebel leader Agali Alambo believes Qaddafi could lead a prolonged counter-insurgency from the deserts of southern Libya: “I know the Guide well, and what people don’t realize is that he could last in the desert for years. He didn’t need to create a hiding place. He likes the simple life, under a tent, sitting on the sand, drinking camel’s milk. His advantage is that this was already his preferred lifestyle… He is guarded by a special mobile unit made up of members of his family. Those are the only people he trusts” (Fox News, September 13)."

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